347 Mullen Our Listing Closed Today And Broke The Sales Record For Bernal Heights
As always, we wish you prosperous San Francisco real estate hunting.
Thea Miller, Real Estate Representation (415) 229-1218
Theamiller@PreviewSFHomes.com
Janis Stone, Real Estate Representation (866) 224-8024
Michael DiVita, Mortgage Finance Support (800) 239-1103
Michael@DiVitaHome.com
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Global luxury real estate market showing ‘strong momentum’
Report: Wealthy continue to pay top dollar for trophy properties
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Australian mansion image via Shutterstock.The international luxury real estate market remains relatively immune to the economic and political trends that drive the general housing market and is off to strong start in 2013, according to a report from high-end real estate affiliate network Christie’s International Real Estate.
The report compared 10 top property markets around the world: London, New York, Hong Kong, Paris, San Francisco, France’s Cote d’Azur, Toronto, Dallas, Los Angeles, and Miami. The company, a subsidiary of Christie’s auction house, also rolled out a new index, the Christie’s International Real Estate Index, which ranks markets across metrics such as record sales price, prices per square foot, percentage of non-local and international purchasers, and the number of luxury listings relative to population.
The 10 markets were also chosen for the network’s strong market share locally. Christie’s International Real Estate has 125 affiliated brokerages in 41 countries.
London, which topped the index, achieved a record sales price of more than $121 million for a residential property in 2012, followed by an $88 million sale in New York. In all of the cities studied except Dallas and Toronto, the highest sales price for the year exceeded $35 million, the report said.
Economist Robert Shiller has predicted U.S. home prices will rise only one or two percent a year in inflation-adjusted terms for the next half decade due to “lingering uncertainties” in world economies, the report said. By contrast, a study by the The Boston Consulting Group expects global sales of personal luxury goods, such as fine art, to grow about 7 percent annually through 2014, assuming there are no new major economic crises, the report added.
“Except where there is government intervention luxury residential real estate values will likely follow luxury goods and not the general housing market, and are therefore poised to increase in many of the cities studied in 2013,” the report said. “This is particularly true as (high-net-worth individuals) turn their luxury investments toward nonconsumables and experiential luxury products that have lasting value.”
As always, we wish you prosperous San Francisco real estate hunting.
Thea Miller, Real Estate Representation (415) 229-1218
Theamiller@PreviewSFHomes.com
Janis Stone, Real Estate Representation (866) 224-8024
Michael DiVita, Mortgage Finance Support (800) 239-1103
Michael@DiVitaHome.com
Outlook Bright For U.S. And International Real Estate In 2013
As usual San Francisco leads the pack:
Momentum continues to build in the housing market, domestically and internationally, and it appears that the real estate recovery is for real.
On the domestic front, I have taken notice of a positive trend in pricing, volume, inventory and sentiment across the country.
I contend that housing will remain as one of the brightest areas of the U.S. economy and will likely be an engine of future growth for the anemic state of the current U.S. economic recovery.
Three statistics that we, at Hennion & Walsh, generally review when we assess the housing market are existing single-family home sales and prices, inventory and months of excess supply as well as pending home sales.
A review of these three data points, as provided by the National Association of Realtors as of November 2012, shows that existing home sales continue to improve in terms of sales volume, rather dramatically over the course of the prior one year period, in all regions of the United States, within all price points, with the exception of less expensive homes under $100,000 in the West region.
Regional Sales by Price
Existing Single Family Homes
November 2012
Source: National Association of Realtors, November 2012
The aforementioned 2012 gains in sales have occurred without the price discounts, or government program incentives, that we have seen in previous years, and are expected to continue throughout 2013. To this end, according to the November 2012 Realtors Confidence Index Survey, all states are expected to experience home price increases over the course of the next twelve months with states such as California, Texas and Florida forecasted as having the highest price increases and states in the Northeast, such as New York, predicted to have the lowest prices increases.
Inventory levels have also fallen significantly over the past year as the months of excess supply have fallen by nearly 33%, from 7.3 months to 4.9 months.
Months of Supply (Seasonally Adjusted)
Existing Single Family Homes
November 2012
Source: National Association of Realtors, November 2012
Finally, pending home sales also improved in November 2012, rising 1.7% for the month and nearly 10% on a year-over-year basis. Pending Home Sales is a forward looking indicator for the housing market as it is based on contract signings, as opposed to deal closings, so any reported increases often suggest better days ahead for housing. Hence, the long term trends appear to be signaling that a mounting recovery with respect to the U.S. real estate market is taking place and gaining steam.
Despite all of the positive results, and associated optimism, with respect to the U.S. housing market, it could be argued that international real estate may actually be worthy of more attention. As the chart below indicates, through September 30, 2012, although North America registered some impressive returns year-to-date (YTD), they were bested by several other international regions.
Source: FTSE, MSCI as of 09/30/2012. “Global Real Estate Investment Commentary, 3rd Quarter 2012, The Tuckerman Group.” Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
I believe, at this time, that the trend of positive performance for global real estate will continue in 2013, with international markets likely outpacing domestic markets again.
As always, we wish you prosperous San Francisco real estate hunting.
Thea Miller, Real Estate Representation (415) 229-1218
Theamiller@PreviewSFHomes.com
Janis Stone, Real Estate Representation (866) 224-8024
Michael DiVita, Mortgage Finance Support (800) 239-1103
Michael@DiVitaHome.com
Thea Miller: West Coast is a Hot Housing Market to Watch
A recent analysis shows the West Coast is a national leader and trendsetter in the housing market. Realtor Thea Miller praises the news.
By Kevin Hewston
The housing mess and subsequent mortgages left the West a virtual dustbowl in some places. It’s hard to believe that was only four years ago, and the economy is slowly picking up just four years later. One way this is happening is through housing prices. A report, released Wednesday, reveals that housing prices are helping to turn the economy around.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices tracked 20 metropolitan areas over several months in one composite. Overall, home prices rose 4.3 percent in the 12 months ending in October 2012. Although there was a seasonal decline in home prices by 0.1 in October, prices rose 4.3 percent compared with October 2011. This was larger than the 3.0 percent annual rates posted for September 2012 only a month before. In 19 of the 20 cities, annual returns in October were higher than for September.
One such city that made the cut was San Francisco. Change in October/September was 0.2 percent higher than for September/August. During those months, housing prices, or returns, were 0.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. That positive growth sparked a one-year change of 8.9 percent—the fourth highest percentage per city. Home prices there were 8.9 percent higher than in October 2011.
San Francisco housing prices rose overall from recent lows related to the housing bust by 22.5 percent. David Blitzer, the S&P Dow Jones Indices Chairman, said the second-largest price rebound there was better than 12 years ago. According to the data, prices in the Los Angeles metro area are up 10.5 percent from their bottom and up 12.2 percent in San Diego.
Those entire figures make California a realtor’s dream come true. The San Francisco metro market is one of the most attractive in the nation. And the Bay Area’s economy and housing market, the article says, is strong thanks to the technology industry.
What a change from a few years ago, when factors such as low housing prices dealt California a devastating blow. The state suffered big losses in the housing bust and was among the hardest hit.
Thea Miller, a San Francisco Bay Area realtor, thinks the index is an utterly valuable and insightful tool for agents. It shows just how much the 20 metropolitan areas truly recovered, accounting for seasonal and non-seasonal adjustments. Since home prices are down in fall and winter than spring and summer, non-seasonal adjustments become more valuable. Realtor Thea Miller has confidence that this newly released data will inspire people to move into the state once again.
About: Thea Miller is a luxury property specialist with TRI Coldwell Banker Previews International, the #1 office in San Francisco.
Read more at http://www.interpacket.com/thea-miller-west-coast-is-a-hot-housing-market-to-watch/#yHZeo8yALlXwBgr7.99As always, we wish you prosperous San Francisco real estate hunting.
Thea Miller, Real Estate Representation (415) 229-1218
Theamiller@PreviewSFHomes.com
Janis Stone, Real Estate Representation (866) 224-8024
Michael DiVita, Mortgage Finance Support (800) 239-1103
Michael@DiVitaHome.com
Hot Bay Area Housing Market
Also a Hot Media Story Again
SHAREAs the Bay Area’s housing market continues to heat up once again, it’s catching the attention of the local news media in a big way. Just in the past week or so I’ve been on KQED, the local PBS radio station to speak about our market, and have been interviewed by the San Francisco Chronicle, talking about why the housing market is rebounding in such a big way.
In a front-page story in Thursday’s Chronicle entitled Bay Area Home Sales, Prices Surging, reporter Carolyn Said reported on the extremely strong housing numbers just released by DataQuick, the La Jolla-based information services company, and examined what is driving the housing turnaround.
In its monthly report, DataQuick said the median sale price in the Bay Area in December rose to $442,750, a stunning 32 percent increase from a year ago and the biggest jump in 25 years of record keeping, according to DataQuick.
Additionally, sales increased year-over-year for the 18th month in a row, climbing 4.5 percent last month. In fact, San Francisco and Santa Clara County both recorded double-digit sales growth year over year at 29.5 percent and 13.1 percent, respectively.
It’s good to see the Bay Area news media on top of this story, but what’s especially gratifying is that they’re getting out the message that we have a severe shortage of homes for sale in the region and sellers are getting good prices for their homes once again.
As all of our sales associates know all too well, there just aren’t nearly enough listings to meet the surging demand of buyers. And the Bay Area isn’t alone in that regard.
A look at unsold inventory statewide tracked by the California Association of Realtors found that listings were down to just 2.6 months in December, half of what they were a year ago and down precipitously from their lofty level of 7.5 months less than two years ago.
The more headlines and stories that spell out the critical need for listings, the better.
My hope is that homeowners who have been sitting on the sidelines will begin to realize that this market presents a tremendous opportunity for them to get top dollar for their home. Right now, it’s a red-hot seller’s market. But as we know, it won’t always be that way. If traditional patterns apply this year, there will be some added inventory in March / April. This will bring more opportunities for Buyers, but also brings additional competition between Sellers, as compared to today.
Below is a market-by-market report from our local offices:
North Bay – Our Central and Southern Marin manager echoes the sentiment of others – not enough inventory to meet buyer demand. Now really is the time to put a property on the market instead of waiting for spring when the buyers will then get to pick over their favorites, he advises. Low, low inventory in Sebastopol. One new listing had 8 offers and they were all cash. Another new listing garnered 5 offers, and 4 were cash. Agents are pulling out all stops searching for sellers but the buyers are piling up like cordwood.
San Francisco – Our Lakeside office manager says somehow agents are continuing to come up with more sales even though there is virtually nothing on the market publicly. Several agents last week with buyers found a property by canvassing the buyers’ top choice neighborhood. Buyers, Sellers, and agents seemed to have taken the last two weeks off after a big year-end flurry of closings, our Lombard office manager reports. Record-low inventory, but hoping a post-cliff, post-football season will bring on some new stock. Our Market Street office says that with the holidays over, listings are starting to slowly increase, but not nearly enough to meet the buyer demand. As such, offer dates and multiple offers remain the order of the day.
SF Peninsula — Our Burlingame office said the local market is still so very tight in all cities. Pre-emptive offers are happening as buyers will do whatever it takes to secure a property. Our agents came straight back to work from the holidays and hit the ground running. A few new listings came to the market this week in Hillsborough. The inventory that came off the market for the holidays has yet to come back on so a well-positioned property is getting attention and showings. The overseas cash is back and looking now. Across the hills in Half Moon Bay, agents are gearing up for the new year with listings on the horizon. We’re seeing strong activity from Peninsula buyers looking for an area they can purchase a home without so many multiple offers. Our Menlo Park manager says agents are busy with new-year sales. Top agents are slammed. More listings seem to be coming on than anticipated and that’s good. Inventory is at an all-time low, reports our Palo Alto manager. Open houses are very busy – lots of buyers out there ready to buy. Our Redwood City-San Carlos office says it’s been a sluggish beginning of the New Year – everyone is out looking for potential listings. Without inventory, both open houses and sales activity are affected, our San Mateo manager says. There is some promise of inventory but not in the numbers agents need.
East Bay – At the beginning of the year, there were only 19 homes for sale in Berkeley and only 2 were new listings. Six of the 19 are distressed sales (REO’s or short sales), with 3 being REO and 3 short sales. There has been a .4% month’s supply of inventory for a while now. With many visitors to the few properties and multiple offers on many, it is a real supply and demand illustration of a Sellers’ Market. The Oakland-Piedmont market is still teeming with anxious buyers and not enough homes to buy. Open houses were slammed this week with several properties having over 100 groups through. This resulted in agents speaking with groups and not individual buyers coming through. One agent has been calling clients she has had over the last couple of years talking about the rising value of their properties. This has resulted in a listing that sold well over expectations in a week (with 25 offers) and two previous sales that were going to be short sales in to non-distressed sales. Inventory continues to be the focus for Orinda. Market appears to be slowly ticking upwards. Multiple offers everywhere, our Walnut Creek manager reports. Buyers are starting to feel less hopeful in regards to getting their offers accepted. This leads to buyers making offers over asking. In some cases they are also paying over appraised value, reminiscent of 2005.
Silicon Valley – Lots of buyers and nothing to sell, our Cupertino manager laments. Great news, our Los Gatos manager says: Prices are up across the board in Santa Clara County. The average sales price for single-family homes in Santa Clara County for 2012 was $834,417 up 12% from $743,893 in 2011. Average sales price for condos and townhomes in Santa Clara County for 2012 was $413,725 up 16% from $356,112 in 2011. Our San Jose-Almaden manager says inventory keeps decreasing with just about every offer being a multiple offer. Our Willow Glen manager says agents are seeing a steady stream of new listings coming into the office and are anticipating listing inventory will continue to increase as January turns into February. Crowded open houses are the norm with multiple offers taking well-priced homes well over asking price. Even homes that are priced what seems to be on the high side are still selling quickly. Agents are running out of seasoned listings as everything is selling. Santa Clara County is near a record low number of active listings with 623 actives, second lowest ever.
South County – The markets in south Santa Clara County are taking some time to wake up after the holidays. There are only four properties that have closed escrow in all of Gilroy since January 1. There are 12 new listings for a total of 39 homes to sell. 45% of those are the luxury market in the area. So, it is slim pickings for buyers. New construction is nearly all sold out with only one homebuilder with an active subdivision left. There is one large subdivision coming in the spring-summer 2013 that should provide us with some new inventory. San Benito County has only 12 escrows that have closed since the year started and only 14 new listings coming on the market since then. The listings that are coming on are all receiving multiple offers. One entry-level home in Gilroy received 40 offers. On January 17 there were just 41 homes for sale in all of Morgan Hill, only two of which were distressed listings. In December available inventory was well below one month—a healthy and normal figure is a three-month inventory index. In addition, pending sales are outnumbering new listings. All of this, of course, is driving prices up. The average sales price of a single family home in Morgan Hill is up over 20% from that just one year ago. The seller’s market continues but most agents are hopeful that potential buyers will realize that the time is right to list their homes.
Santa Cruz County – Low inventory levels continues to be the driving force in this market like other areas in the Bay Area. This is the biggest challenge the agents are facing and we have been having a lot of conversations about how to identify sellers who do not have their homes listed but may be interested in selling. Agents are having to be creative to find interested potential sellers, and match those people with the buyers looking in a specific area and price range, and experiencing success with that effort. Our local office had several “off market” sales and this is all due to the agents taking that extra step and hunting down those sellers. Inventory levels are down 26% from a year ago and agents don’t see a lot of change in that trend so far. However, they are expecting the best as we move toward warmer and sunnier days. Sales overall in Santa Cruz County for single-family homes year over year were up 18%, and that is wonderful news. The agents are optimistic and expecting that trend to continue as we move further into 2013.
Monterey County – While there was a bit of a lull over the holidays and start of the new year, the beat has picked right up and our agents on the Monterey Peninsula are once again busy showing properties and writing contracts. The high-end Previews market is also showing improvement as the year gets underway.
That’s it for now. It’s often said that the market doesn’t really come alive until after the Super Bowl. Let’s hope that holds true for a pickup in inventory! Have a good weekend, and a great Pre- 49er Super Bowl week!
Thea Miller, Real Estate Representation (415) 229-1218
Theamiller@PreviewSFHomes.com
Janis Stone, Real Estate Representation (866) 224-8024
Michael DiVita, Mortgage Finance Support (800) 239-1103
Michael@DiVitaHome.com
